A longitudinal analysis of the pediatric surgeon workforce

Objective To describe the trends in the pediatric surgeon workforce during the last 25 years and to provide objective data useful for planning graduat e medical education requirements. Summary Background Data In 1975, the Study on U.S. Surgical Services (SOSSU S) was published, including a model to survey staffing. A pediatric surgeon workforce study was initiated in conjunction with SOSSUS as a population, supply, and need-based study. The study has been updated every 5 years usin g the same study model, with the goals of determining the number and distri bution of pediatric surgeons in the United States, the number needed and wh ere, and the number of training programs and trainee output required to fil l estimated staffing needs. This is the only such longitudinal workforce an alysis of a surgical specialty. Methods Questionnaires were sent to 100 pediatric surgeons representing the 62 standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) in the United States wi th a population of 200,000 or more to verify the names and locations of all active pediatric surgeons and to gain information about the 5-year need fo r new pediatric surgeons by region. A program was developed to predict the number of pediatric surgeons relative to the total population and the 0-to- 17-year-old population in the subsequent 30 years using updated data on the present number and ages of pediatric surgeons, age-specific death and reti rement rates, projections of U.S. population by age group, and varying numb ers of trainees graduated per year, As each 5-year update was done, previou s projections were compared with actual numbers of pediatric surgeons found , The trends during the last 25 years were analyzed and compared and additi onal information regarding the demographics of practice, trends in reimburs ement, and volume and scope of surgery was obtained. Results The birth rate has been stable since 1994, The 0-to-17-year old pop ulation has been increasing at 0.65% per year; a 0.64% annual rate is proje cted to 2040. At present, 661 pediatric surgeons are distributed in every S MSA of 200,000 or more population, with an average age of 45 and an average age of retirement 65. The actual number of pediatric surgeons in each 5-ye ar survey has consistently validated previous projections. Trainee output h as increased markedly in the past 10 years, The rate of growth of the pedia tric surgeon workforce at present is 50% greater than the forecasted rate o f increase in the pediatric age group, and during the past 25 years the rat e of growth of the pediatric surgeon workforce has been double that of the pediatric population growth, Nationally, significant changes in reimburseme nt, volume of surgery, and demographics of practice have occurred.