Prediction of hepatitis C burden in Canada

To assess the risk of hepatitis C in Canada and to predict the burden that this disease may pose to the Canadian society in the near future, expected numbers of persons at different stages of the disease currently and in the next decade were estimated by simulation using a published hepatitis C natu ral history model with no treatment effect being applied. Based on the esti mate of 240,000 persons who are currently infected with the hepatitis C vir us in Canada, the simulation analysis demonstrated that the number of hepat itis C cirrhosis cases would likely increase by 92% from 1998 to the year 2 008. It was also projected that the number of liver failures and hepatocell ular carcinomas related to hepatitis C would increase by 126% and 102%, res pectively, in the next decade. The number of liver-related deaths associate d with hepatitis C is expected to increase by 126% in 10 years. The medical and social care systems in Canada may not be ready to support these large increases. These results highlight the importance of both the control of di sease progression of hepatitis C virus infected persons and the primary pre vention of hepatitis C infections in Canada.