A PROSPECTIVE ON MACROCYBERNETIC PROCESS MANAGEMENT-SYSTEMS

In an editorial in the February 1996 issue of Technological Forecastin g and Social Change Professor Linstone noted that ''the rapid pace of technology has not been matched by the pace of human change.'' Were we to drop our perspective a bit lower, a similarly troublesome imbalanc e within technology itself becomes apparent: the rapid rate of increas e in the complexity of process-related technologies relative to the mu ch slower rate of increase in the sophistication of process control sy stems. The conclusion at which most technological forecasts seem to ar rive is that there will be a continuation - perhaps even an accelerati on - of the trend toward more intricate and sweepingly extensive proce sses (production-related and otherwise). If so, there is the specter o f a steadily increasing shortfall between requirements and capabilitie s, and hence the likelihood of even grander technological embarrassmen ts. This article considers two ways in which this shortfall might be k ept in check. Increases in the intricacy of processes can be met, and to a considerable extent are already being met, by exchanging conventi onal process control facilities for enhanced alternatives. Less certai n is how expansions of project scope might best be accommodated. One p ossibility is to consider exchanging process control systems for broad er-purview process management systems. Hence the focus in this article is on prospects for the development of macrocybernetic constructs. (C ) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.