Swapping space for time and unfair tests of ecological models

Testing ecological models for management is an increasingly important part of the maturation of ecology as an applied science. Consequently, we need t o work at applying fair tests of models with adequate data. We demonstrate that a recent test of a discrete time, stochastic model was biased towards falsifying the predictions. If the model was a perfect description of reali ty, the test falsified the predictions 84% of the time. We introduce an alt ernative testing procedure for stochastic models, and show that it falsifie s the predictions only 5% of the time when the model is a perfect descripti on of reality. The example is used as a point of departure to discuss some of the philosophical aspects of model testing.