Antioxidant micronutrients have been hypothesized to provide protection aga
inst rheumatoid arthritis. We investigated. serum selenium and serum alpha-
tocopherol for their prediction of subsequent development of rheumatoid art
hritis in a case-control study nested within a Finnish cohort of 18,709 adu
lt men and women who had neither arthritis nor a history of it at the basel
ine examination in 1973-1978; by late 1989, 122 had developed rheumatoid ar
thritis. Of the incident cases, 34 were rheumatoid factor-negative. Three c
ontrols per each incident case were individually matched for sex, age, and
municipality. Serum selenium and alpha-tocopherol concentrations were measu
red from stored serum samples collected at baseline. Serum selenium was inv
ersely related to subsequent occurrence of rheumatoid factor-negative but n
ot rheumatoid factor-positive rheumatoid arthritis. The relative risks, adj
usted fur smoking and serum total cholesterol, for the highest relative to
the lowest tertile of serum selenium, were 0.16 [95% confidence interval (C
I) = 0.04-0.69] for rheumatoid factor-negative and 0.96 (CI = 0.49-1.90) fo
r rheumatoid factor-positive rheumatoid arthritis. During the first 10 year
s of follow-up, the relative risk for rheumatoid arthritis for the highest
compared with the lowest tertile of serum alpha-tocopherol was 0.44 (CI = 0
.19-0.99). No association was found for longer follow-up periods. Low selen
ium status may be a risk factor for rheumatoid factor-negative rheumatoid a
rthritis, and low alpha-tocopherol status may be a risk factor for rheumato
id arthritis independently of rheumatoid factor status.