Estimating mortality due to cigarette smoking: Two methods, same result

We estimated the mortality from various diseases caused by cigarette smokin g using two methods and compared the results. In one method, the "Prevent" model is used to simulate the effect on mortality of the prevalence of ciga rette smoking derived retrospectively. The other method, suggested by R. Fe te et at (Lancet 1992;339:1268-1278), requires data on mortality from lung cancer among people who have never smoked and among smokers, but it does no r require data on the prevalence of smoking. In the Prevent model, 33% of d eaths among men and 23% of those among women in 1993 from lung cancer, chro nic bronchitis, emphysema, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were caused b y cigarette smoking. In the method proposed by Peto et at, 35% of deaths am ong men and 25% of deaths among women from these causes were estimated to b e attributable to cigarette smoking. The differences between the two method s are small and appear to be explicable. The Prevent model can be used for more general scenarios of effective health promotion, but it requires more data than the Peto et at method, which can be used only to estimate mortali ty related to smoking.