A resource-constrained optimal control model for crackdown on illicit drugmarkets

In this paper we present a budget-constrained optimal control model aimed a t finding the optimal enforcement profile for a street-level, illicit drug crackdown operation. The objective is defined as minimizing the number of d ealers dealing at the end of the crackdown operation, using this as a surro gate measure of residual criminal activity. Analytical results show that op timal enforcement policy will invariably use the budget resources completel y. Numerical analysis using realistic estimates of parameters shows that cr ackdowns normally lead to significant results within a matter of a week, an d if they do not, it is likely that they will be offering very limited succ ess even if pursued for a much longer duration. We also show that a ramp-up enforcement policy will be most effective in collapsing a drug market if t he drug dealers are risk-seeking, and the policy of using maximum enforceme nt as early as possible is usually optimal in the case when the dealers are risk averse or risk neutral. The work then goes on to argue that the under lying model has some general characteristics that are both reasonable and i ntuitive, allowing possible applications in focused, local enforcement oper ations on other similar illegal activities. (C) 2000 Academic Press.