Robust statistical methods to discriminate extreme events in geoelectricalprecursory signals: Implications with earthquake prediction

Citation
V. Cuomo et al., Robust statistical methods to discriminate extreme events in geoelectricalprecursory signals: Implications with earthquake prediction, NAT HAZARDS, 21(2-3), 2000, pp. 247-261
Citations number
26
Categorie Soggetti
Earth Sciences
Journal title
NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN journal
0921030X → ACNP
Volume
21
Issue
2-3
Year of publication
2000
Pages
247 - 261
Database
ISI
SICI code
0921-030X(200005)21:2-3<247:RSMTDE>2.0.ZU;2-8
Abstract
In this study, we propose a robust statistical method to discern anomalous patterns in geoelectrical time series measured in a seismic area of the Sou thern Apennine chain. First, a filtering procedure to remove seasonal effec ts related to meteo-climatic fluctuations was carried out. Then, we selecte d an autoregressive model able to describe the time fluctuations of geoelec trical signals and propose a method to obtain an objective estimate of prob ability of occurrence for each extreme event detected in the time series. O ur applications in Southern Italy allow us to hypothesize that the ambiguit y of short-term prediction is within the complicated dynamics of the physic al process responsible for electrical anomalies observed on the earth's sur face.