V. Cuomo et al., Robust statistical methods to discriminate extreme events in geoelectricalprecursory signals: Implications with earthquake prediction, NAT HAZARDS, 21(2-3), 2000, pp. 247-261
In this study, we propose a robust statistical method to discern anomalous
patterns in geoelectrical time series measured in a seismic area of the Sou
thern Apennine chain. First, a filtering procedure to remove seasonal effec
ts related to meteo-climatic fluctuations was carried out. Then, we selecte
d an autoregressive model able to describe the time fluctuations of geoelec
trical signals and propose a method to obtain an objective estimate of prob
ability of occurrence for each extreme event detected in the time series. O
ur applications in Southern Italy allow us to hypothesize that the ambiguit
y of short-term prediction is within the complicated dynamics of the physic
al process responsible for electrical anomalies observed on the earth's sur
face.