ESTIMATING SMALL-AREA DEMAND FOR WATER - A NEW METHODOLOGY

The estimation of water demand is fundamental to effective water resou rce management. Water supply is measured at district level but true de mand is not, and therefore studies of water-pricing relations are limi ted and mass-balance based assessment of leakage, illegal use, meter i naccuracies etc., are compromised. This paper describes the value and limitations of existing geodemographic methods, and an alternative tec hnique widely used in other fields, microsimulation, is proposed. It i s shown that geographic stability in demand relations is not found in all consumer commodities and cannot be assumed for water. Sampled data for Leeds, West Yorkshire, are used to construct a microsimulation mo del, and the results of that model are applied to the city of Leeds at ward level, Applicability is also demonstrated at enumeration distric t level.