Difference between regular and deterministic chaos processes based on timeanalysis of load: an example using CEMIG data

This work is a study on the nature of a real load data set extracted as a t ime series. It checks whether the process that generates the loading graphi cs has any regularities and if so, where they can be detected. It still eva luates if the process presents non-periodical amplitudes of the frequencies that characterize them. The difference between these two kinds of behavior , finally, corresponds to the determination of the processes as regular or chaotic. In such case, as discussed here, a set of signals corresponding to load values taken in intervals of 15 min is provided and it is a matter of regression to their formation condition. In order to show how the time sal e may affect the diagnosis of a system, another set obtained in intervals o f 0.0083 s is analyzed. As a consequence, it is shown that chaos may be bet ter identified if measures are obtained in short intervals of time. The ana lysis presented in this work is based upon the evaluation mechanisms of a c haotic process, which basically can be reduced to the calculation of Lyapun ov exponents and to verifying the power spectra. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.