Can forestry be a competitive land use option? Model simulations from humid tropical Costa Rica

Model simulations are carried out to study options for managed natural fore st and melina (Gmelina arborea) and teak (Tectona grandis) plantations on l and suited for agriculture in the humid tropical Atlantic lowlands of Costa Rica. Tools used are a linear programming model that maximizes regional ec onomic surplus, and the so-called technical coefficient generators that qua ntify input and outputs of forestry and competing crop and pasture-based be ef cattle production systems. Model scenarios are carried out fur varying p rices of wood, beef and labor, under conditions of unlimited and restricted wood markers. Results indicate that teak and melina plantations are attrac tive land use options while managed natural forest is not. With unlimited w ood demand, teak occupies 70% of the study area and total yearly teak produ ction exceeds current Costa Rican wood consumption, indicating the need to include market mechanisms in the study. The area under teak is relatively i nsensitive to price changes between -40 and +60% of the base value of $95 m (-3) (1996 stumpage price). The area under melina changes considerably with price changes of +/-20% of the base value of US$16 m-3. Natural forest rev enues must rise by 440% of the current $32 m(-3) to make it economically mo re attractive than other land use options, especially pasture for beef prod uction and melina plantations. Increasing labor costs are likely to favor t ree plantations. Increasing beef prices considerably reduce the competitive ness of melina, though not that of teak. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.