Exploring the concept of climate surprise

This paper examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications fo r environmental policymaking. Although long-term, incremental changes in cl imate can have serious consequences, it is usually the extreme, surprising events that cause the most damage to human health and property. Different t axonomies of surprise are explored, drawing from literature concerning dive rse aspects of human society. Surprise is revealed to be a subjective conce pt in many respects, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief systems, and media exposure. How policymakers have reacted to climate surpr ises in the past is considered, particularly with regard to choices made be tween pro-active and reactive measures. It is concluded that, while some ki nds of surprise are truly unpredictable, there are other types that could b e anticipated and their adverse effects forestalled. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.