A process tracing plausibility probe of uneven democratization's effects on cooperative dyads: The case of Zambia and Zimbabwe 1980-1993

In this article we conduct a plausibility probe of the hypothesis that unev en democratization decreases cooperation within primarily cooperative dyads . This hypothesis is derived from a combination of Remmer's theory of democ ratization and international cooperation with democratic peace theory. The case of cooperation and conflict between two small powers, Zambia and Zimba bwe, from the latter's independence in 1980 to 1993 fits Eckstein's criteri a for a useful plausibility probe. In addition to overall, bilateral and re gional interactions between the two countries, we examine relations in the political, economic, strategic, and physical environment issue areas. Metho dologically, we combine time series analysis of events coded in the COPDAB format and interviews with policy makers. We find that, although net cooper ation between the two countries remained positive during the entire 1980-19 93 period, it decreased significantly overall and in economic issues after the beginning of the Zambian democratic transition in June 1990. Our data a llow us to trace the process involved in this decline in net cooperation, r uling out some alternative explanations but not concurrent Structural Adjus tment Programs (SAPs), and showing how even slightly uneven democratization was an important cause because it decreased similarity and trust, while no t decreasing transparency, and increased uncertainty and thus nationalist r esponses. We conclude that this plausibility probe justifies further system atic research on the effects of uneven democratization on cooperative dyads to test our hypothesis on cases with and without SAPs, and suggests the ut ility of further probes of the effects of different types of uneven change: on various types of dyads.