Increasing taxes as a strategy to reduce cigarette use and deaths: Resultsof a simulation model

Objectives. The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model to pred ict the effects of taxes on the smoking rate and smoking-attributable death s. Methods. The model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related death s from a baseline year forward. The effects of taxes of different sizes, in dexed and unindexed, and temporary vs sustained are modeled. Results. The model predicts that sustained tax increases have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and the number of premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. Indexing taxes to inflation ste ms erosion of the tax effect. Conclusions. Tax hikes have the ability to substantially affect smoking rat es in the near term. These effects grow over time and lead to substantial s avings in lives and health care costs. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.