OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED 10-DAY AFRICAN RAINFALL ESTIMATES CREATED FOR FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

A method of estimation of accumulated precipitation which incorporates numerical model analyses, satellite and surface data has been develop ed for the African continent. An estimate for accumulated convective c loud precipitation is computed from cold cloud top temperature duratio n with a bias removal made from the use of rain-gauge data. Orographic precipitation from relatively warm cloud sources is estimated using a combination of surface and satellite data, orography, and numerical m odel analyses of relative humidity and wind. The results of a comparis on of these precipitation estimates with independent rainfall data sho w this method produces skilful analyses of estimated accumulated preci pitation for the Sahel region of Africa.