Land-cover-change trajectories in southern Cameroon

The objective of this study is to better understand the complexity of defor estation processes in southern Cameroon by testing a multivariate, spatial model of land-cover change trajectories associated with deforestation. The spatial model integrates a spectrum of independent variables that character ize land rent on a spatially explicit basis. The use of a time series of hi gh-spatial-resolution remote sensing images (Landsat MSS and SPOT XS), span ning two decades, allows a thorough validation of spatial projections of fu ture deforestation. Remote sensing observations reveal a continuous trend o f forest clearing and forest degradation in southern regions of Cameroon, b ut with a highly fluctuating rate. A significant proportion of the areas su bject to a land-cover conversion experienced other changes in the following years. The study also demonstrates that modeling land-cover change traject ories over several observation years allows a better projection of areas wi th a high probability of change in land-cover than projecting such areas on the basis of observations from the previous time period alone. Statistical results suggest that, in our southern Cameroon study area, roads mostly in creased the accessibility of the forest for migrants rather than providing incentives for a transformation of local subsistence agriculture into marke t-oriented farming systems. The spacial model developed in this study allow s simulations of likely impacts of human actions, leading to a transformati on of the landscape (e.g., road projects) on key landscape attributes (e.g. , biodiversity). Currently, several road projects or major logging concessi ons exist in southern Cameroon.