Should NFL blackouts be banned?

In this paper, the authors examine the economic and policy implications of the National Football League (NFL) 'blackout rule,' a league rule that proh ibits local television broadcast of games that are not sold out at least 72 hours prior to game time. The foundation for understanding and assessing t he impact of the blackout rule is an analysis of attendance using data on g ames during the 1996-1997 National Football League season. Expanding on pre vious research, three separate components of attendance (season ticket sale s, game day ticket sales, and game day no-shows) are examined in detail. Ac counting for the endogeneity of key variables, Tobit and Probit analyses ar e used to estimate and predict individual game attendance. These empirical estimates are then used as a vehicle to assess the implications of game day blackouts and the potential for public policy intervention. More specifica lly, the authors begin by estimating the impact of the blackout on game day attendance. Using these estimates, they assess the implications of imposin g a local blackout for individual team revenues. The gain in on-site stadiu m revenue due to the blackout (e.g., through additional ticket and concessi on sales) are then viewed in the broader context of the societal loss due t o the game not being broadcast in the local area. The empirical results sug gest that the gain in team revenue is small in comparison to the loss of vi ewership rights. This suggests that public policy intervention may be possi ble that would result in a Pareto superior market outcome. The paper conclu des by exploring possible intervention strategies.