Road traffic emissions - predictions of future contributions to regional ozone levels in Europe

As part of the European Commission research project "Assessment of policy i nstruments for efficient ozone abatement strategies in Europe", detailed em ission projections have been developed for the year 2010 based upon current ly adopted measures, and feasible reductions. For road-traffic emissions th is projection considers passenger cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, mop eds and motorcycles. Here we present model calculations made with the EMEP 3-D Eulerian model to illustrate the relative contribution of each of these road-traffic sectors to ozone concentrations across Europe. The model is r un for a six-month period, April-September 1996. The model results clearly suggest that further reduction in road-traffic emissions beyond currently p lanned measures would be beneficial in reducing ozone over Europe, particul arly in the case of heavy-duty vehicles and evaporative emissions. These re sults do of course depend on the estimated emissions in each sector for the year 2010, and we show that this is a major source of uncertainty in such scenario calculations (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. Ail rights reserved.