Pulmonary function is a long-term predictor of mortality in the general population - 29-year follow-up of the Buffalo Health Study

Study Objectives: Results from several studies have described a relationshi p between pulmonary function and both all-cause and cause-specific mortalit y. The purpose of this study was to in investigate the predictive value of pulmonary function by gender after 29 years of follow-up. Design: Prospective study with 29-year follow-up of the Buffalo Health Stud y cohort. Participants: Randomly selected sample of 554 men and 641 women, aged 20 to 89 years, from all listed households of the city of Buffalo, NY. Measurements and results: Baseline measurements were performed in 1960 to 1 961. Pulmonary function was assessed based on FEV1 expressed as the normal percent predicted (FEV1%pred). FEV1%pred adjusted by age, body mass index, systolic BP, education, and smoking status was inversely related to all-cau se mortality in both men and women (p < 0.01). A sequential survival analys is in participants who had a survival time of at least 5, 10, 15, 20, and 2 5 years after enrollment in the study was also performed. Except for men wh o survived for > 25 pears, me observed a statistically significant negative association between FEV1%pred and all-cause mortality. FEV1%pred was also inversely related to ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. When participa nts were divided into quintiles of FEV1%pred, participants in the lowest qu intile of FEV1%pred experienced significantly higher all-cause mortality co mpared with participants in the highest quintile of FEV1%pred. For the enti re follow-up period, the adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality wer e 2.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60 to 3.13) for men and 1.81 (95% C I, 1.24 to 2.63) for women, respectively. Hazard ratios for death from IHD in the lowest quintile of FEV1%pred were 2.11 (95% CI, 1.20 to 3.71) and 1. 90 (95% CI, 0.99 to 3.88) for men and women, respectively. Conclusions: These results suggest that pulmonary function is a long-term p redictor for overall survival rates in both genders and could be used as a tool in general health assessment.