Future inequality in CO2 emissions and the impact of abatement proposals

This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomp osition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 f or 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. N ext, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol an d other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, wi th a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial rerankin g of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.