Cb. Terwee et al., Pooling of prognostic studies in cancer of the pancreatic head and periampullary region: The triple-P study, EURO J SURG, 166(9), 2000, pp. 706-712
Objective: Development of a prognostic tool for patients with unresectable
pancreatic cancer to distinguish between with low or high probabilities of
survival 3 to 9 months after diagnosis.
Design: Data about individual patients from five studies were pooled. A mul
tivariate proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates was dev
eloped, including age, sex, and metastases. An extended model was developed
on a subset of patients, including weight loss, pain, and jaundice at diag
nosis.
Setting: Multicentre study, The Netherlands, Norway, USA, UK, and Canada.
Subjects: 1020 patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer.
Main outcome measures: Prediction of prognosis.
Results: Patients with metastases, pain, or weight loss at diagnosis had a
significantly poorer prognosis than the others. Older men had a worse progn
osis than younger men, while older women had a better prognosis than younge
r ones. Patients with jaundice had a relatively good prognosis. Differences
in survival among the studies were incorporated in a prognostic score char
t.
Conclusion: The prognostic score chart can be used to select patients with
relatively low expectation of survival for endoscopic palliation, and patie
nts with relatively high expectation for surgical palliation.