Detecting non-linear structure and predicting turbulent gusts in surface wind velocities

We present a new approach, based on a locally low-dimensional prediction sc heme, which was originally developed for deterministic chaotic signals, to detect the deterministic structure of local surface wind velocities. By exp loiting properties of the signal which mimic the deterministic structure cr eated by non-linear coherent effects of a turbulent fluid and by resolving the strong inherent non-stationarity as a sequence of different dynamical r egimes, short time predictions of future wind velocities can be performed. Although on average no reduction of the prediction error can be achieved us ing a non-linear model instead of a linear stochastic one, intermittent gus ts can be predicted with significantly higher accuracy. An asymmetry in the predictability is observed, which suggests that an increase of the velocit y is rather deterministic, whereas the subsequent decrease is dominated by a stochastic behaviour.