Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020

Many of the developing world's poorest farmers and food insecure people are highly dependent on root and tuber crops as a contributing, if not the pri ncipal, source of food, nutrition, and cash income. Hence, an improved unde rstanding of the production, utilization, trade, and estimated future econo mic importance of these crops has potentially far-reaching implications for investments in agricultural research at both the international and, perhap s even more importantly, national levels. Previous projections for the evol ution of global supply, demand, and trade into the 21st century, however, h ave focused on grains, oilseeds, and livestock. This paper presents global projections of supply, demand, and trade for root and tuber crops to the ye ar 2020. According to the baseline scenario, roots and tubers will decline in relative economic importance only marginally vis-a-vis the other major f ood and feed crops over the next three decades. According to an alternative , high demand and production growth scenario, the economic importance of ro ots and tubers versus the same commodities will increase slightly. The resu lts of this scenario contrast with earlier projections that predicted a dec line in importance for roots and tubers. Policymakers should take cognizanc e of and act on the growth prospects for these crops. In the past, root and tuber crops have often been overlooked in policy deliberations precisely b ecause their potential was considered more limited than actual growth rates clearly indicate, or that current projections foresee. (C) 2000 Elsevier S cience Ltd. All rights reserved.