PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF INSTITUTIONALIZATIO N IN THE CONTEXT OF GERONTOLOGICAL PLANNING IN THE GIRONDE AREA (FRANCE)

The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive factors over five years follow-up of institutionalization, relevant for starti ng interventions in the area of Gironde (South Western France). This s tudy deals with a longitudinal study of community residents aged 65 ye ars and older. Of the 2792 subjects initially included in the cohort i n year 1988, 2493 were selected for this study, leading to the subject s whose type of housing Mas known at least once over the five year fol low-up (1989-1993). The statistical analysis was made with a discrete Cox proportional hazard model. Of the 2493 subjects, 150 entered an in stitution during the five years of follow-up, leading to a cumulative incidence of 7.1 %. In the multivariate analysis, the predictive facto rs found in this study were age, absence of phone in the house, living in home for the aged, cognitive decline evaluated with the Mini-Menta l-Status-Examination (MMSE), dependency for one item of the Lawton's s cale (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living or IADLs), namely the in ability to do shopping, and limited social contact with the family. Th ese different indicators are a basis for decision making to target hom e care services fitted to the needs of the area.