Predictors of first onset and recurrence of major depression in young women during the 5 years following high school graduation

Although most depressive episodes in adulthood are recurrences of the disor der, lifetime history of major depression (MD) is often neglected in predic tive models. On the basis of research and theory suggesting differential pr ediction of MD across the course of the disorder, the authors explored whet her factors that predict a first MD onset would not predict MD recurrence. Predictors of MD were examined longitudinally in a sample of 128 young wome n followed for 5 years. Controlling for lifetime MD history, 5-year MD was predicted by the presence before study entry of 3 variables: having witness ed family violence before age 16, having a parent with a psychiatric disord er, and having a nonmood Axis I disorder. During the follow-up period, chro nic and episodic stress predicted MD. Prior lifetime MD interacted with bot h chronic stress and parental psychopathology to predict MD, such that firs t onsets, but not recurrences, were predicted by these risk variables.