Weather, seasonal trends and property crimes in Minneapolis, 1987-1988. A moderator-variable time-series analysis of routine activities

This research examines the relevance of routine activity theory to three pr operty offences: burglary, robbery, and larceny-theft. We hypothesized that temperature would combine with time of day to predict these offences. This hypothesis was tested using a moderator-variable time-series analysis of p roperty crime reports to police in Minneapolis over a 2-year period. The an alysis indicated that time of day and day of the week were the best predict ors of all three property crimes. After controlling for 281 temporal variab les (e.g holidays, school closings, and interactions with time of day and d ay of the week), temperature also emerged as a significant predictor of pro perty offences. Contrary to Queletet's thermic law, more crimes were report ed during summer than other months. The results are consistent with predict ions derived from routine activity theory. (C) 2000 Academic Press.