Effects of reiteration, hindsight bias, and memory on realism in eyewitness confidence

This study investigated the effects of repetition, memory, feedback, and hi ndsight bias on the realism in confidence in answers to, questions on a fil med kidnapping. In Experiment 1 the participants showed overconfidence in a ll conditions. In the Repeat condition ('how confident are you now that you r previous answers are correct') overconfidence was reduced as a consequenc e of the decrease in confidence in both correct and incorrect answers. Comp ared with the Repeat condition when the participants received feedback on t heir answers and were asked to remember their initial confidence, the confi dence level was higher for correct and lower for incorrect answers. In Expe riment 2, recalled confidence (the Memory condition) increased compared wit h the original confidence both for correct and incorrect answers; the effec t of this was increased overconfidence. The Hindsight condition showed a de crease in confidence in incorrect answers. The results suggest that a uniqu e hindsight effect may be more clearly present for incorrect than for corre ct answers. Our study gives further evidence for the malleability of the re alism in eyewitness confidence and we discuss both the theoretical and fore nsic implications of our findings. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Lt d.