Measuring the influence of Canadian carbon stabilization programs on natural gas exports to the United States via a 'bottom-up' intertemporal spatialprice equilibrium model

In this paper, we present the results of a study of the impact of Canadian carbon stabilization programs on exports of natural gas to the United State s. This work was based on a study conducted for the US Environmental Protec tion Agency. The Gas Systems Analysis model (GSAM), developed by ICF Consul ting for the US Department of Energy, was used to gauge the overall impact of the stabilization programs on the North American natural gas market. GSA M is an intertemporal, spatial price equilibrium (SPE) type model of the No rth American natural gas system. Salient features of this model include cha racterization of over 17000 gas production reservoirs with explicit reservo ir-level geologic and economic information used to build up the supply side of the market. On the demand side, four sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and electric power generation - are characterized in the model. Lastly, both above and below ground storage facilities as well as a compre hensive pipeline network are used with the supply and demand side character izations to arrive at estimates of market equilibrium prices and quantities and flows. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classif ication: Q43.