An exploration of multi-country political conflict/cooperation interdependence

Previous investigations of dynamic conflict actions and reactions among maj or countries have generally assumed the unit of analysis to be either a dya d or a triad. Our objective of the paper is to explore this assumption. The empirical analysis employs quarterly political conflict/cooperation among the United States, the (former) Soviet Union, China, Japan, and (West) Germ any from 1950 to 1991. The model consists of a system of dynamic multiple r egression equations. Various groups formed among these countries are tested to find out whether they can be considered an autonomous unit of analysis. The analysis reveals several groups of countries whose political relations can be considered to be autonomous. In particular, either the United State s-the Soviet Union dyad or the United States-the Soviet Union-China triad i s not an appropriate, autonomous unit of analysis in dynamic conflict actio n-reaction models, because these countries are significantly influenced by the presence of other countries. New directions for future research are als o suggested.