Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States

Objectives. This study estimated future morbidity, mortality, and costs res ulting from hepatitis C virus (HCV). Methods. We used a computer cohort Simulation of the natural history of HCV in the US population. Results. From the year 2010 through 2019, our model projected 165 900 death s from chronic liver disease, 27 200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma, and $10.7 billion in direct medical expenditures for HCV During this period HCV may lead to 720 700 years of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellula r carcinoma and to the loss of 1.83 million years of life in those younger than 65 at a societal cost of $21.3 and $54.2 billion, respectively. In sen sitivity analysis, these estimates depended on (1) whether patients with HC V and normal transaminase levels develop progressive liver disease, (2) the extent of alcohol ingestion, and (3) the likelihood of dying from other ca uses related to the route of HCV acquisition. Conclusions. Our results confirm prior:Centers for Disease Control and Prev ention projections and suggest that HCV may,lead to a substantial health an d economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.