Studying the impacts of the Internet without assuming technological determinism

Developing countries generally have low levels of Internet services, and as a result require different approaches to impact measurement than developed countries. A conceptual Framework is proposed which accepts a role for tec hnological innovation, but which rejects technological determinism. It reco gnizes that economic, social, political and cultural factors affect the pen etration and use of the Internet. It emphasizes direct and indirect impacts of the Internet on people, while including impacts on institutions and the environmental factors and policies that affect institutional impacts. Ulti mately the Internet is an induced innovation, but developing countries stil l suffer from the Matthew principle - that those who have most will be give n still more. Impacts of the Internet range from communications cost saving s, to changes in performance of individual businesses, NGOs, government age ncies, and schools, to changes in performance of markets, to those measured in terms of economic growth, equity, health status, knowledge, and environ mental quality. The overall view of the impacts of the Internet emerges (as does the picture in a jigsaw puzzle) from combining many studies of specif ic effects, each conveying a part of the picture. The majority of the people of the world live in low and middle income count ries; they have the greatest need of the Internet to help solve the pressin g problems of poverty, and they are the least prepared to use the technolog y and appropriate its benefits. Clearly great benefits are available to dev eloping countries from appropriate uses of even their scarce Internet netwo rks. Many of the institutions affected by the Internet are international. Intern et impacts on these international institutions must be confronted. Thus dev eloping countries may face significant risks from participation in internat ional financial, labor and goods and services markets, because of significa nt gaps in connectivity and in knowledge and information. On the other hand , they may benefit greatly from power uses of the Internet abroad, of which Africans are scarcely aware, such as famine early warning and epidemiologi cal alert systems. Donor agencies encourage the development of the Internet in developing coun tries, and especially in Africa. Several have agreed to work collaborativel y to learn the lessons from their experience. Such efforts are important if the potential of the Internet is to be realized in developing countries, t he risks inherent in the Internet are to be avoided or ameliorated, and the net effect to be enhanced equity and social and economic growth.