M. Gray et M. Caul, Declining voter turnout in advanced industrial democracies, 1950 to 1997 -The effects of declining group mobilization, COMP POLI S, 33(9), 2000, pp. 1091-1122
Past comparative voting-behavior research has revealed that electoral insti
tutions can explain much of the variation in voter turnout between nations.
This study takes an alternative and dynamic approach by identifying and ex
plaining a pattern of turnout decline within industrial democracies, which
is beyond purely institutional explanation. Multivariate analysis of a pool
ed cross section of 18 industrial democracies between 1950 and 1997 suggest
s that turnout decline can best be explained in terms of changing patterns
of group mobilization and electorate demographics. The authors specifically
point to the decline of unions and labor parties, which have traditionally
been associated with the mobilization of peripheral voters and the real in
creases in the cost of mobilization. The authors control for institutional
changes and find that they are less useful in explaining variation in turno
ut within advanced industrial democracies.