Output growth and variability of export and import growth: International evidence from Granger causality tests

A sample of fifty developing countries was investigated from 1970 to 1993 i n terms of causality from export and import growth as well as from anticipa ted and unanticipated export and import growth volatility to per capita GNP growth. No credible evidence of causality was detected by the various test s. This lack of causal evidence does not imply that international trade is not a contributory development force, but inferentially suggests that growt h should be sought mainly within the domestic dynamic, with international t rade extending a helpful hand to the development process of the highly hete rogeneous developing countries.