Monitoring and assessing technology choice: the case of solar cells

The objective of this paper is to suggest a methodology that will help us t o determine if the present rate and direction of technological change is co mpatible with the development of a sustainable society. We combine two pers pectives on technology assessment. The first focuses on current techno-econ omic trends and the second on long-term resource and environmental constrai nts to the diffusion of a new technology. We apply our approach to the case of solar cells. Based on an analysis of technology, actor and market dynam ics we suggest that thin-film solar cells are about to dominate the industr y. Within the thin-film family, there is competition between alternative de signs. The diffusion of three of these will, however, be limited by resourc e, and perhaps emission, constraints. One design (a-Si) fares much better i n terms of these constraints but is less efficient. Three policy issues are identified. First, the diffusion of solar cells is not yet self-sustained and further policy intervention is required. Second, the problems of the cu rrent thin-him designs suggest that there is a need for policies both to su stain variety and to balance that requirement with the short-term requireme nt of cost reduction. Third, policy must ensure that a diffusion of solar c ells containing scarce metals does not lead to an erosion of environmental constraints. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.