COMPARISON OF PARAMETRIZED MODELS FOR COMPUTER-BASED ESTIMATION OF DIABETIC PATIENT GLUCOSE RESPONSE

Two mathematical models for the description of diabetic patient glucos e behaviour are proposed. Unlike high order differential-equation base d compartmental models, these models employ only the data typically av ailable to a diabetic patient: the history of measured blood glucose c oncentrations and of insulin injections. The model structures are comp ared with a naive benchmark (zero-order hold) model in a computer simu lation. It is demonstrated that, given four daily blood glucose measur ements and two dairy insulin injections, a parametrized model of patie nt blood glucose response to insulin can provide relevant data in the estimation of a patient's future blood glucose response in terms of pa st blood glucose measurements and insulin injections. Parametrized mod el root means squared errors of glycaemic predictions for 18 simulated patients ranged from 7-22 mg dl(-1), as compared with 19-42 mg dl(-1) for the benchmark model.