An assessment of flood forecasting in Bangladesh: The experience of the 1998 flood

Floods are among the most costly natural disasters in terms of human suffer ings and economic losses in Bangladesh. Approximately 20% of the country ex periences normal annual flooding while all the historical catastrophic floo ds inundated more than fifty percent of the country's total area. The recen t flood in 1998 has been found to be more severe than all previous floods. During the flooding season of 1998, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Cente r (FFWC) of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) prepared daily fl ood bulletin and incorporated information about rainfall, rise/fall of rive r water, flood forecasting for 24 and 48 hr in advance and warning messages (if any). The FFWC attempted to provide adequate services to the local and national level decision-making process. The forecasting procedure adapted by the FFWC was based on hydrological information, forecaster's experience, and model simulation. This paper primarily examines the role and activitie s of the FFWC, especially in flood forecasting and warning. Identification of the causes and consequences of 1998 flood is the other pertinent area of discussion of the paper. Findings of this research revealed that the flood of 1998 was caused by hea vy downpour in the upstream that was drained out through the major rivers i n Bangladesh. Three major rivers' peak was synchronized and characterized i t as the most prolonged flood in the history of Bangladesh. It also reveale d that, despite various limitations, the hood forecasts of the FFWC were re asonably adequate to meet national demand during the crises of 1998.