The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine: its potential social and economic impact

Present and immediately foreseeable medical knowledge suggest that HIV infe ction cannot be avoided by vaccination and that an affordable cure for the resulting syndrome, AIDS, is a long way off. There is a strong possibility that Ukraine is confronted by an HIV epidemic which will spread into the ge neral population and that the most common mode of transmission will be thro ugh heterosexual intercourse, The epidemic in the Ukraine is currently conc entrated among intravenous drug users. II is estimated that between 60,000 and 180,000 people may currently be infected. In present economic and socia l circumstances there are many features of Ukrainian society that may add t o the probability of the epidemic becoming widespread in the general popula tion. It is likely that this process may have already commenced. The result of this will be numerous additional deaths and illness over the short (5 y ear) (19,000-23,000 deaths), medium (10-15 year) (61,000-111,000), and long er terms (>20 year) (in excess of 40,000-160,000 deaths). The research repo rted here was undertaken in 1997-8 and describes the potential medium to lo ng term social and economic impact of an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine, Usin g the concepts of risk environment, susceptibility and vulnerability, it re ports the problems which might be expected to develop in relation to care o f excess orphans, the elderly, vulnerable households and regions as well as among those working in the "third sector", a social sector upon which expo nents of the importance of developing sound "civil society" in "transitiona l economies" place heavy emphasis. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All right s reserved.