Carotid endarterectomy reduces the overall risk of stroke in patients with
(ECST)70-99% recently symptomatic stenosis, and to a lesser extent, at leas
t in the short-term, in patients with severe asymptomatic stenosis. Whether
angioplasty and stenting is a reasonable alternative will be decided by th
e results of ongoing RCTs of angioplasty versus endarterectomy. The current
policy of operating on all patients with a recently symptomatic severe car
otid stenosis will, on average, do more good than harm. However, the number
of patients needed to treat to prevent one stroke is still relatively high
. The effectiveness of endarterectomy could be improved by selecting patien
ts more rigorously. Subgroup analysis and risk factor modelling are likely
to be of some value, but further testing is required before final models ca
n be recommended for routine use in clinical practice. However, it is also
likely that predictive models will eventually also take into account inform
ation on cerebral microemboli, cerebral perfusion, and genetic characterist
ics. The development and validation of integrated predictive models, combin
ing these different modalities, will require large prospective clinical stu
dies.