A single measurement of CD38CD8 cells in HIV+, long-term surviving injecting drug users distinguishes those who will progress to AIDS from those who will remain stable

This study compares the predictive power of a single measurement of CD8(+) CD38(+) , CD8+CD45RO(+) or CD8(+)CD38(+)CD45RO(+) subpopulations in predict ing progression to AIDS in a cohort of HIV+ longterm surviving injecting dr ug users. The results showed that both the total CD8(+) percentage, and the CD8(+)CD38(+) and CD8(+) CD38(+) CD45RO(+) subpopulations of cells all ind ividually predicted progression to AIDS. In combination with CD4, only the CD8(+) CD38(+) subpopulation enhanced the predictive power of the CD4 perce ntage alone. The CD8(+) percentage correlated negatively with the CD4 perce ntage and the CD8(+) CD45RO(+) subpopulation did not predict disease progre ssion. The proportion of CD8(+) D38(+) cells identified which patients with a moderate CD4 level were more likely to progress to AIDS, and conversely, which patients with a low CD4 count were likely to remain clinically stabl e. The results were consistent irrespective of whether lime was measured fr om the date of seroconversion. or from the date of the test. This study is the first to measure these markers in HIV-infected injecting drug users, an d in long-term survivors. The results demonstrate the considerable added va lue of the CD8(+) CD38(+) cell percentage over the CD4 count alone, in pred icting HIV clinical progression.