The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash

Citation
A. Johansen et D. Sornette, The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash, EUR PHY J B, 17(2), 2000, pp. 319-328
Citations number
29
Categorie Soggetti
Apllied Physucs/Condensed Matter/Materiales Science
Journal title
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B
ISSN journal
14346028 → ACNP
Volume
17
Issue
2
Year of publication
2000
Pages
319 - 328
Database
ISI
SICI code
1434-6028(200009)17:2<319:TNCOA2>2.0.ZU;2-A
Abstract
The Nasdaq Composite fell another approximate to 10% on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting: in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corre sponds to a total loss of over 35% since its all-time high of 5133 on the 1 0'th of March 2000. Similarities to the speculative bubble preceding the in famous crash of October 1929 are quite striking: the belief in what was coi ned a "New Economy" both in 1929 and presently made share-prices of compani es with three digits price-earning ratios: year. Furthermore, we show that the largest draw downs of the Nasdaq are outliers with a confidence level b etter than 99% and that these two speculative bubbles, as well as others, b oth nicely fit into the quantitative framework proposed by the authors in a series of recent papers.