A. Johansen et D. Sornette, The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash, EUR PHY J B, 17(2), 2000, pp. 319-328
The Nasdaq Composite fell another approximate to 10% on Friday the 14'th of
April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble
starting: in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corre
sponds to a total loss of over 35% since its all-time high of 5133 on the 1
0'th of March 2000. Similarities to the speculative bubble preceding the in
famous crash of October 1929 are quite striking: the belief in what was coi
ned a "New Economy" both in 1929 and presently made share-prices of compani
es with three digits price-earning ratios: year. Furthermore, we show that
the largest draw downs of the Nasdaq are outliers with a confidence level b
etter than 99% and that these two speculative bubbles, as well as others, b
oth nicely fit into the quantitative framework proposed by the authors in a
series of recent papers.