Estimating the numbers of refugees in London

Background Local populations of refugees and asylum seekers are growing in many urban areas in Western Europe and it is increasingly important to deve lop health and welfare services that are appropriate for these groups. Howe ver, in the United Kingdom there are no routine data sources at local level that give even the most basic information such as the numbers of refugees within a given area. Methods The total number of asylum seekers entering the United Kingdom was calculated using cumulative data on asylum seekers at national level. This population was then apportioned first to Greater London and then to the bor oughs within London. The apportionment to London boroughs was based on anal ysis of four datasets. In the absence of any better evidence, an average of these four approaches was used to produce the final borough level estimate s. Results The total numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in London who have entered the United Kingdom over the past 15 years was estimated to be betw een 240 000 and 280 000, At borough level the estimates of refugee populati ons ranged from under 1000 to values up to 20000. There were statistically significant associations between the four data sources when the proportions of the London total in each borough were compared. However, for some borou ghs there could be large differences between estimates based on different d ata sources. Conclusion The estimates provided give an indication of the size of the ref ugee population in London. None of the data sources used to apportion the L ondon total were ideal and all were proxy values with their own strengths a nd weaknesses. This work points to the importance of developing information systems that in future will allow better estimates of the size of the refu gee populations. This is particularly important in view of the UK national policy of dispersal proposed in the latest Immigration and Asylum Act.