Bj. Naughton et al., Outcome of nursing home-acquired pneumonia: Derivation and application of a practical model to predict 30 day mortality, J AM GER SO, 48(10), 2000, pp. 1292-1299
Citations number
27
Categorie Soggetti
Public Health & Health Care Science","General & Internal Medicine
OBJECTIVES: To derive a prediction model of 30 day mortality for nursing ho
me-acquired pneumonia (NHAP) based on factors that can be readily identifie
d by nursing home staff at the time of diagnosis and to apply the model to
management issues related to NHAP including clarifying the importance of pr
epneumonia functional status as a predictor of outcome of NHAP.
DESIGN: This was a retrospective chart review of 37& episodes of NHAP treat
ed in the nursing home or hospital during two periods: November 1997 to Apr
il 1998 and November 1998 to April 1999.
SETTING: Eleven nursing homes in the greater Buffalo, NY region.
PARTICIPANTS: Nursing home residents with radiographically proven pneumonia
who had at least one of the following signs/symptoms: cough, fever, purule
nt sputum, respiratory rate greater than or equal to 25 breaths/minute, loc
alized auscultatory findings, or pleuritic pain.
MEASUREMENTS: Status (alive or dead) of each resident at 30 days (30 day mo
rtality) after diagnosis of NHAP was the dependent variable. Factors predic
ting 30 day mortality were identified by logistic regression analysis. A sc
oring system was developed based on the results of the logistic model. Each
episode of NHAP in the derivation cohort was scored using the model and th
e cohort was stratified by the model score into six categories or risk for
mortality (0-5). The predictability of the model in the derivation cohort w
as measured using receiver operator characteristics curve analysis.
RESULTS: Of 378 episodes of NHAP, 74% were treated initially in the nursing
home and 26% were hospitalized initially for treatment. The overall 30 day
mortality was 21.4%; however, the mortality rate was significantly higher
for those treated initially in the hospital (29.6% vs 16.6%; P = .012). Log
istic regression analysis identified four predictors of 30 day mortality: (
1) respiratory rate > 30 breaths/ minute (2 points), (2) pulse >125 beats/m
inute (1 point), (3) altered mental status (1 point), and (4) a history of
dementia (1 point). Applying the scoring system to each episode in the deri
vation cohort demonstrated increasing mortality with increasing score. The
c statistic for the model in the derivation cohort was .74. Based on the se
verity of NHAT, model episodes treated initially in the hospital were more
acutely ill than those who were treated initially in the nursing home, and
episodes treated with a parenteral antibiotic in the nursing home were more
acutely ill than those who were treated with an oral agent. Functional sta
tus was not a predictor of 30 day mortality although there was a trend of h
igher mortality in the most dependent group (P = .065). The severity of NHA
P model was able to define low and high risk mortality groups within a func
tional status category.
CONCLUSIONS: A severity of NHAP model was derived from a large cohort of ep
isodes in multiple facilities. The model had reasonable discriminatory powe
r in the derivation cohort. The model may aid clinicians in making treatmen
t decisions in the nursing home setting and in making hospitalization decis
ions. Although prepneumonia functional status provides a reasonable estimat
e of NHAP severity and prognosis, the severity of NHAP model permitted furt
her refinement of these estimates. The severity of NHAP model requires vali
dation before it can be recommended for general use.