Three experiments explored the relationship between chroma-salience profile
s of individual chords and tone profiles obtained after short chord progres
sions. Musicians' tone profiles for diatonic progressions of one, two, and
three chords were compared with predictions of three models: a bottom-up st
imulus model (number of times each chroma ol:curs in the progression), a to
p-down or schema-driven key model (best-fitting key profile of C. L. Krumha
nsl & E. J. Kessler, 1982), and an intermediate pitch model that includes b
oth top-down and bottom-up components (cumulative pitch salience; R. Parncu
tt, 1989, 1993). For single chords, all predictors significantly matched to
ne profiles, except the key model applied to the diminished triad. For pair
s of chords, the pitch and key models consistently outperformed the stimulu
s model, consistent with the assumption that a (top-down) key had been esta
blished; in the pitch model, the second chord influenced the tone profile m
ore than the first (recency effect). Progressions of three chords comprised
forward (e.g., F-G-C) and backward (C-G-F) cadences in major and minor key
s. The pitch and key models were successful for all progressions, ,ut the k
ey model predicted the tonic of backward cadences in C major and minor to b
e E Predictions of the stimulus model were clearly worse than those of the
other models, especially for backward cadences. Both primacy and recency ef
fects were observed. In summary, the pitch model was the most consistently
successful model over all experiments. To successfully predict tone profile
s following chord progressions, it was necessary to account not only for re
cency land primacy) but also for variations in pitch salience within chords
. Results are consistent with a model of tonality induction in which bottom
-up processes interact in real time with top-down processes of two kinds: r
ecognition of harmonic pitch patterns and recognition of key profiles.