A risk assessment was performed to incorporate uncertainty in food processi
ng conditions to develop a risk-based sterilization process design. The foc
us of this analysis was uncertainty associated with heterogeneous food prod
ucts. Quartered button mushrooms were the chosen food product because it re
presents the most typical type. A model for sterilization of spherical part
icles was utilized, and each parameter's uncertainty was characterized for
use under Monte Carlo simulation. Various particle distributions and fluid
types were compared. The output of the model was the required sterilization
time to achieve the target sterilization conditions with 95% probability.
This value was then used to determine the mean fluid velocity for a given t
ube length. Finally, the output from the model was analyzed to determine th
e confidence in output based on uncertainty in the input parameters. The mo
del was more sensitive to variation in particle size distribution than flui
d type for power-law fluids. The 90% confidence interval included a holding
time range of 1 min. With a 95% confidence level that only 8% of the data
will be below the target sterilization conditions, a maximum of 9% of the d
ata were expected to achieve double the target level. The results of such a
n analysis would be useful for management decisions concerning the design o
f aseptic food processing operations.