Multimedia fate and exposure models are widely used to regulate the release
of toxic chemicals, to set cleanup standards for contaminated sites, and t
o evaluate emissions in life-cycle assessment. CalTOX, one of these models,
is used to calculate the potential dose, an outcome that is combined with
the toxicity of the chemical to determine the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP
), used to aggregate and compare emissions. The comprehensive assessment of
the uncertainty in the potential dose calculation in this article serves t
o provide the information necessary to evaluate the reliability of decision
s based on the HTP. A framework for uncertainty analysis in multimedia risk
assessment is proposed and evaluated with four types of uncertainty. Param
eter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo analysis. The variability
in landscape parameters is assessed through a comparison of potential dose
calculations for different regions in the United States. Decision rule unce
rtainty is explored through a comparison of the HTP values under open and c
losed system boundaries. Model uncertainty is evaluated through two case st
udies, one using alternative formulations for calculating the plant concent
ration and the other testing the steady state assumption for wet deposition
. This investigation shows that steady state conditions for the removal of
chemicals from the atmosphere are not appropriate and result in an underest
imate of the potential dose for 25% of the 336 chemicals evaluated.