A dynamic risk model is developed to track the occurrence and evolution of
a drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis outbreak. The model characterizes a
nd integrates the various environmental, medical, institutional, and behavi
oral factors that determine outbreak development and outcome. These include
contaminant delivery and detection, water treatment efficiency, the timing
of interventions, and the choices that people make when confronted with a
known or suspected risk. The model is used to evaluate the efficacy of alte
rnative strategies for improving risk management during an outbreak, and to
identify priorities for improvements in the public health system. Modeling
results indicate that the greatest opportunity for curtailing a large outb
reak is realized by minimizing delays in identifying and correcting a drink
ing-water problem. If these delays cannot be reduced, then the effectivenes
s of risk communication in preemptively reaching and persuading target popu
lations to avoid exposure becomes important.