From scenario thinking to strategic action

Scenarios are not an end in themselves. They are a management tool used to improve the quality of executive decision making. However, experience shows that using scenarios in this way proves more difficult than developing the m. This article examines the causes of this implementation problem and sugg ests ways of overcoming the cultural bias toward single-point forecasting. Starting with a clear-cut decision focus for the scenarios, the author deve lops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to stra tegy, outlining four different approaches. He suggests that only after a gr eat deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary app roach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to str ategy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.