A brief methodological guide to scenario building

This brief guide reviews the philosophical underpinnings of the prospective procedure then strives to explain the concepts and characteristics of this "intellectual undiscipline" which aims not to predict but rather to help s hape the future. La prospective contributes to our efforts to gain foresigh t, an indispensable quality for anyone who wants to be an actor in a future yet to be created. The various stages of the procedure are presented, in p articular the scenario method as applied by the author in local, national, and international futures projects for subjects as varied as aging populati ons, retirement in industrialized countries, and the impact of new technolo gy on production. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.