Phases of the Canadian business cycle

In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Ou r preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Cana da, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chro nologies. We find that a simple, 'two quarters of negative growth' rule for determining recession dates is the mast similar to our chronology. We also find that the mast recent recession in Canada was unique in both its lengt h and the slow speed of recovery. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C52, E32.