Probabilistic production costing of diesel-wind energy conversion systems

This paper describes the development of a general probabilistic model of a Diesel-wind energy conversion system (DWECS) composed of several Diesel uni ts, several wind turbines (wind farm), and battery storage feeding a load. The model allows the simulation of a Diesel system with a wind farm of diff erent wind turbine types considering system stability, and outages due to h ardware failure and primary energy fluctuations. It is based on a modificat ion of the convolution method, which considers a given penetration level se lected by the utility for stability consideration. The production Costs of the Diesel units are then deduced from the expected energy not supplied (EE NS) using a unit de-convolution in reverse economic order. A methodology is also presented to determine the size of the battery storage based on the e xcess wind energy available during operation, or that disconnected for stab ility consideration, while accounting for the charging/discharging cycles.